Source: capital Deep submersible

Miao Weibin, the pioneer of "window fund", the leader of "ultra-small cap" investment and the (almost) "invincible" of quarterly earnings, broke his profit record in the first quarter of 2024.

First of all,Avetlx63The leading product he manages, Jinyuan Shun an Yuanqi, appeared in the first quarter of 2024.Avetlx63. the 13% decline broke its record of "quarterly positive earnings" since the fourth quarter of 2019.

Second, his combination showed signs of "style evolution" after 2024.

What does all this mean?

01

The investment style remains mysterious.

Miao Weibin has always been one of the most mysterious fund managers in the industry.

His scattered, flexible, small-cap, and heavy stock turnover rate of the combination of characteristics, is very different from almost all other fund managers in the market.

Even within the company, his portfolio and net worth curve are difficult for other fund managers to imitate.

In 2023, some channels identified other fund managers with the same company as his "X substitute", but the actual result is that no one can replace each other after all.

In 2024, the industry began to spread some of the clips of his internal interview (the authenticity has yet to be determined), but the people who saw it felt more "dizzy".

02

The net worth curve has "new features".

Miao Weibin's net worth curve in the wide volatility of small-cap stocks since the second quarter of 2023, the trend seems to have opened with the small-cap index.

In particular, in 2024, the net worth of the fund and the index of small-cap stocks were adjusted in almost the same direction, but the range was significantly smaller than that of the index of small-cap stocks, sparking discussion that fund managers might abandon small-cap stocks.

However, from the net value fluctuation curve, the net value curve of the fund is still highly similar to the small-cap stock index (below), but with some excess returns.

Only from the fluctuation characteristics of the net worth curve, it is difficult to draw the conclusion that it has been far away from small-cap stocks.

Of course, objectively speaking, the trends of large, medium and small cap indexes have been highly similar since the beginning of 2024.

Miao Weibin really configured large-cap stocks, which can not be seen from the net worth curve for the time being.

03

Heavy stocks are "getting bigger".

A study of Jinyuanshun an Yuanqi's quarterly report shows that the average market capitalization of the top 10 stocks in the first quarter is significantly higher than that in the previous quarter.

In fact, the increase in average market capitalization occurred in the fourth quarter of last year.

For the 12 consecutive quarters before the third quarter of 2023, the average market capitalization of Jinyuanshun an Yuanqi's heavy stocks did not exceed 5 billion yuan.

It rose to 17.9 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 33.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.

The growth of market capitalization is indeed obvious.

Take a specific look (below), when the quarter Miao Weibin's allocation of the overall stock began to be more than 10 billion yuan of circulation market value. This obviously includes some changes in style.

04

There is a record of "getting bigger" in history.

Throughout the layout of heavy stocks since the establishment of Jinyuanshun an Yuanqi, the average market value of overweight stocks has become larger in the second and third quarterly reports in 2020.

At that time, Jinyuan Shun an Yuanqi had an average stock market value of more than 100 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters.

Specifically (the following figure), the heavy position stocks in the second and third quarterly reports of 2020 are actually due to the holding of 2 or 3 bank stocks respectively, resulting in the passive enlargement of the circulating stock market value, and the rest of the heavy position stocks in the current period are at the level of 20-4 billion yuan in circulation market value.

This is not the same as in the first quarter of this year.

05

Concentration and valuation are also on the rise.

The change is not only that, Jinyuan Shun Anyuan heavy warehouse stocks concentration and valuation level, also appeared to rise than before.

Although its heavy stock is still quite scattered. However, the first quarterly report showed that the combined net worth ratio of heavy stocks reached the fund's "unprecedented" value, close to 14.6%.

Wind data show that the average price-to-earnings ratio of heavy stocks is more than 28 times earnings and is significantly higher than the same average again after the end of 2021.

What these two numbers mean needs to be further observed.

06

High probability is an active choice.

But what we can be sure is that it is Miao Weibin who is taking the initiative to change.

It is not mixed with the change of management scale.

Jinyuanshun an Yuanqi still did not open its application in the first quarter of 2024. According to the first quarterly report, the fund's initial share was 355 million. After nearly 50m shares were redeemed in the first quarter, the latest share is about 300m.

Under such circumstances, Jinyuanshun Anyuanqi Quarterly report disclosed the latest scale of less than 1.3 billion yuan, close to the mid-2022 level.

This means that the change of Jinyuan Shun an Yuanqi is more likely to be the adjustment made by fund managers on their own initiative.

07

"statement" is still ambiguous.

However, Miao Weibin did not make a special statement on this.

In his quarterly report, he said that the fund was still firmly optimistic about stock assets during the reporting period, kept its position at a medium-to-high level and improved somewhat, and persisted in diversifying its investment. in the selection of stocks and industries, we will increase the allocation of companies with good sustainable profitability, while taking into account the allocation of undervalued varieties with a certain performance-to-price ratio.

Of course, due to the limited information in the quarterly report, we do not see whether this change appears in all positions for the time being. It remains to be seen whether he has any more changes.

08

Where does the excess return come from?

The "bottom" logic of Miao Weibin's investment method is still unknown to the outside world.

But according to its history and the latest changes in net worth, it does not seem to matter whether he allocates small and medium-sized stocks or large-cap stocks.

More importantly, how does Miao Weibin continue to earn excess returns-less when the index falls and much higher when the index goes up (see chart below).

From the performance of excess earnings in each quarter, Miao Weibin seems to have grasped some methods to a certain extent.

And the results of these methods are similar to the "bonus" of asset allocation (stock position) in the portfolio of individual stocks with relative excess returns.

But at present, it is difficult for the outside world to figure out what the bottom is like.

According to the growth experience of quantitative institutions, this is either a complex investment scheme made by a large number of artificial adulteration, or the uncomplicated quantification accords with the subjective investment scheme.

But it's all just conjecture.

The multifaceted Miao Weibin always gives many challenges to the "brainpower" observed by the outside world.