Market review and analysis
Review of the primary market
Last week, the issuance of treasury bonds, local bonds and policy financial bonds in the primary market was 160 billion, 74.9 billion and 154 billion respectively.PlayhugelottoThe net financing amounts were 117.8 billion, 38.2 billion and 154 billion respectively. A total of 433 credit bonds were issued, with a total size of 383.4 billion and a net financing of 113.1 billion. One new convertible bond will be issued with a size of 9Playhugelotto60 million yuan.
Review of the secondary market
Last week, the yield curve was mainly flat. The main influencing factors include: interest rate debt supply, monetary policy, Q1 GDP, capital side and so on.
Liquidity tracking
Last week, the open market pulled back a net 72 billion, of which MLF shrank by 70 billion, and the liquidity of the tax period remained solid. This week, there will be 10 billion reverse repurchase and 70 billion treasury cash deposits due, pay attention to the treasury cash deposit bidding situation.
Policy and fundamentals
Announced last week, the first-quarter GDP and March solid investment were higher than expected, while March industrial growth and social zero were lower than expected, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment as important support. From the point of view of high-frequency data, the state of speeding up construction continues, and sales of new homes are relatively flat.
overseas market
Powell acknowledged the lack of further progress in inflation and that it might be appropriate for high interest rates to work for a longer time. Finally, the 10-year U.S. debt closed at 4.Playhugelotto.62%, up from 12BP the week before last.
The Prospect of Bond Market Strategy
The pattern of asset shortage continues, and the performance of the State Development Corporation in the past 10 years is the most outstanding. GDP in the first quarter reached the annual target, while the economic base in the second quarter of last year was low, and the demand for policy increase was not strong in the short term. The NDRC press conference further delayed market expectations for the release of government debt supply, while the central bank hinted at a reduction in the demand for credit. At the same time, there was no shortage of funds for the traditional tax payment in April, and the 10-year supply volume increased expectations of an improvement in its liquidity. Overall, the medium-term trend in bonds has not changed, but increased volatility in a low interest rate environment is inevitable, focusing on changes in capital at the end of the month, May Day consumption and overseas risk appetite. In terms of convertible bonds, the economic reading in the first quarter exceeded market expectations, and the pricing of the asset shortage on the bond side is still the focus of attention.PlayhugelottoThe equity side ushered in a certain risk preference repair after the CSRC clarified the market's policy misunderstanding of small and medium-sized caps, believing that in the shock observation period, convertible bonds have better fault tolerance because of the convexity of options.
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